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United States presidential election in New Jersey, 2004
	; ;
; Kerry; ; ; 50-60%; ; 60-70%; ; 70-80%; ; ;	; Bush; ; ; 50-60%; ; 60-70%; ; ;
; President before election; George W. Bush; Republican; ;	; Elected President ; George W. Bush; Republican; ;

The 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

New Jersey was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 6.7% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a state Kerry would win, or a blue state. Although due to the impact of the September 11, 2001 attacks and the resignation amidst scandal of Governor James McGreevey, the state was considered an interesting race. Polls showed Senator John F. Kerry with a slim lead throughout the campaign and the Republicans invested some campaign funds in the state. In the end, however, Kerry took New Jersey by a comfortable margin. To date this is the last time the Democratic margin of victory was less than 10%. As of the 2016 presidential election^[update], this is the last election in which the Republican candidate won Somerset County.

Primaries

New Jersey Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]

D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat

Associated Press: Solid Kerry

CNN: Kerry

Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat

Newsweek: Leans Kerry

New York Times: Leans Kerry

Rasmussen Reports: Kerry

Research 2000: Solid Kerry

Washington Post: Kerry

Washington Times: Solid Kerry

Zogby International: Kerry

Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Kerry won most of the pre-election polls taken in this state, but mostly by small margins. The final 3 polling average showed the Democratic leading 49% to 42%.^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $5,934,011.^[3] Kerry raised $6,513,274.^[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.^[5]^[6]

Analysis

Generally, Kerry was very dominant in the urban centers of the state, particularly in Essex, Hudson, and Camden Counties. However, Bush made inroads in Bergen County, where many wealthy residents reside, and in other South Jersey counties. Bush controlled largely rural parts of the state, such as the Northwest (Hunterdon, Somerset, and Morris are also among the ten wealthiest counties in America) and Salem County. Monmouth County's wealthy population and Ocean and Cape May Counties' older population also contributed to Bush's relative success in this largely Democratic state.

Results

United States presidential election in New Jersey, 2004^[7]^[8]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	1,911,430	52.92%	15
	Republican	George W. Bush (Inc.)	1,670,003	46.24%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	19,418	0.54%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	4,514	0.12%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	2,750	0.08%	0
	Green	David Cobb	1,807	0.05%	0
	Socialist	Walt Brown	664	0.02%	0
	Socialist Equality	Bill Van Auken	575	0.02%	0
	Socialist Workers	Roger Calero	530	0.01%	0
Totals			3,611,691	100.00%	15
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered)					56%/72%

Results breakdown

By county

Results of the general election by municipality, darker colors indicate higher win percentage:
-Blue municipalities won by Kerry
-Red municipalities won by Bush

County	Kerry %	Kerry #	Bush %	Bush #	Others %	Others #
Atlantic	52.5%	55,746	46.6%	49,487	0.9%	864
Bergen	51.9%	207,666	47.4%	189,833	0.7%	2,745
Burlington	53.1%	110,411	46.1%	95,936	0.8%	1,609
Camden	62.4%	137,765	36.9%	81,427	0.7%	1,741
Cape May	42.3%	21,475	56.8%	28,832	0.9%	455
Cumberland	52.4%	27,875	45.8%	24,362	1.8%	948
Essex	70.4%	203,681	28.8%	83,374	0.8%	2,293
Gloucester	52.2%	66,835	46.9%	60,033	0.9%	1,096
Hudson	67.3%	127,447	32.0%	60,646	0.7%	1,353
Hunterdon	39.1%	26,050	59.8%	39,888	1.1%	742
Mercer	61.3%	91,580	37.9%	56,604	0.8%	1,326
Middlesex	56.3%	166,628	42.8%	126,492	0.9%	2,685
Monmouth	44.6%	133,773	54.6%	163,650	0.8%	2,516
Morris	41.7%	98,066	57.5%	135,241	0.8%	1,847
Ocean	39.0%	99,839	60.2%	154,204	0.8%	2,263
Passaic	55.4%	94,962	43.9%	75,200	0.7%	1,149
Salem	46.2%	13,749	52.8%	15,721	1.0%	311
Somerset	47.4%	66,476	51.7%	72,508	0.9%	1,295
Sussex	34.6%	23,990	64.1%	44,506	1.3%	900
Union	58.7%	119,372	40.6%	82,517	0.7%	1,498
Warren	37.4%	18,044	61.3%	29,542	1.3%	622

By congressional district

Kerry won 7 of 13 congressional districts.^[9]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	39%	61%	Rob Andrews
2nd	50%	49%	Frank LoBiondo
3rd	51%	49%	H. James Saxton
4th	56%	44%	Chris Smith
5th	57%	43%	Scott Garrett
6th	43%	57%	Frank Pallone, Jr.
7th	53%	47%	Mike Ferguson
8th	41%	59%	Bill Pascrell
9th	41%	59%	Steve Rothman
10th	18%	82%	Donald Payne
11th	58%	42%	Rodney Frelinghuysen
12th	46%	54%	Rush D. Holt, Jr.
13th	31%	69%	Bob Menendez

Electors

Technically the voters of NJ cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NJ is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 15 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.^[10]

Warren Wallace

Wilfredo Caraballo

Tom Canzanella

Carolyn Walch

Peggy Anastos

Bernard Kenny

Ronald Rice

Abed Awad

Jack McGreevey - (Father of former Gov. James McGreevey)

Wendy Benchle

Loni Kaplan

Carolyn Wade

Riletta L. Cream

Bernadette McPherson

Upendra Chivukula

References

^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW^{[permanent dead link]}

^ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=34

^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04

^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04

^ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.11.html

^ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/

^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - New Jersey 2004"..mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit}.mw-parser-output q{quotes:"""""""'""'"}.mw-parser-output code.cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:inherit;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Lock-green.svg/9px-Lock-green.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .cs1-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .cs1-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg/9px-Lock-gray-alt-2.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .cs1-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg/9px-Lock-red-alt-2.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration{color:#555}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription span,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration span{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration,.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-right{padding-right:0.2em}

^ "Official General Election Candidates List" (PDF).

^ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

^ https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2004_certificates/ascertainment_new_jersey_01.html

External links

Official Results (New Jersey Division of Elections)

Official Results by municipality

[1] ttp://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW^{[permanent dead link]}

[2] ttp://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=34

[3] ttp://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04

[4] ttp://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04

[5] ttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.11.html

[6] ttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/

[7] "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - New Jersey 2004"..mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit}.mw-parser-output q{quotes:"""""""'""'"}.mw-parser-output code.cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:inherit;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Lock-green.svg/9px-Lock-green.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .cs1-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .cs1-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg/9px-Lock-gray-alt-2.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .cs1-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg/9px-Lock-red-alt-2.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration{color:#555}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription span,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration span{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration,.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-right{padding-right:0.2em}

[8] "Official General Election Candidates List" (PDF).

[9] ttp://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

[10] ttps://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2004_certificates/ascertainment_new_jersey_01.html

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